Declining Fertility Rate in India

Syllabus: GS2/Health

Context

• For decades, Indian policymakers have encouraged population control, however, recently India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has now dropped to 1.9.

TFR as per the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024

• India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime assuming she lives through her reproductive years (15-49 years), has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1.
  • Replacement rate is the number of child births a woman must go through to keep the population constant from one generation to the next without migration. 
• The only states in India with a TFR higher than 2.1 in 2024 were Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
• Delhi records the lowest TFR at 1.2, followed by Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal at 1.3 each.
  • The southern states have always had TFRs well below the national average. This has gone down further in the last two decades.
• In 1985, India’s TFR was 4.3 and has fallen at a rate of about 0.06 per year and there is no sign that this decline will reverse.
  • At the current pace, India’s TFR is projected to drop below 1.6 by 2031.

Reasons for Declining Fertility Rate in India

• Delayed Marriage and Childbearing: The average age of marriage has increased, especially in urban areas, couples are postponing childbirth due to career considerations.
• Urbanisation: Urban living is associated with higher costs of housing, education, healthcare, and childcare. Limited living space and changing lifestyles encourage smaller family sizes. 
• Improved Access to Contraception and Family Planning: Expansion of reproductive health services and contraceptive availability has enabled couples to plan the number and spacing of children.
• Declining Infant and Child Mortality: Improvements in healthcare, immunisation, nutrition, and sanitation have reduced child mortality.
• Economic Factors: The cost of raising and educating children has increased substantially. Families increasingly prefer investing more resources in fewer children to improve their quality of life and educational outcomes.
• Demographic Transition: India is moving through the later stages of the Demographic Transition Model, characterised by low birth rates, low death rates, slower population growth.

Implications

• Slower Population Growth and Eventual Stabilisation: A fertility rate below replacement level means that, over time, each generation will be smaller than the previous one. Eventually, the population is expected to stabilize and later decline.
• Rising Ageing Population: A sustained low fertility rate will increase the proportion of elderly citizens.
  • India may face challenges similar to those experienced by countries such as Japan and South Korea i.e. higher pension liabilities, greater healthcare expenditure and increased demand for geriatric care and social security.
• Future Labour Force Challenges: A declining birth rate eventually leads to fewer entrants into the labour market. Economic growth could slow if productivity improvements do not compensate for a smaller workforce.
• Regional Demographic Imbalances: Fertility rates vary significantly across states, most southern and western states have well below replacement fertility, while states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan continue to record relatively higher fertility levels.
  • This may alter the internal migration patterns, political representation, resource allocation and labour market dynamics.

Government Initiatives

• State-Level Population Policies: Andhra Pradesh’s Population Management Policy (2026) provides cash incentives for second, third and fourth children, free education support, fertility clinics, and improved maternal healthcare.
  • Sikkim has introduced measures such as extended maternity and paternity leave and support for IVF treatment to address declining fertility.
• Infertility Support Programmes: The Jiyo Parsi Scheme provides financial assistance for infertility treatment, child-care support, and awareness campaigns to arrest the decline of the Parsi population.
• Maternal and Child Health Schemes: Programmes under the National Health Mission (NHM) improve maternal and child health, reduce infant mortality, and create conditions that support family formation and childbearing.
  • Schemes like Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY) provide maternity benefits to pregnant and lactating women.

Way Ahead

• Adopt a Balanced Population Policy: Shift from a sole focus on population control to a demographic strategy that balances population stabilization with concerns over declining fertility.
• Strengthen Family Support Measures: Provide affordable childcare, parental leave, and flexible work arrangements for young couples.
• Expand Fertility and Reproductive Healthcare: Improve access to infertility treatment, assisted reproductive technologies (ART), and reproductive health services, especially in smaller cities and rural areas.
• Promote Gender Equality: Encourage greater sharing of caregiving responsibilities and enhance women’s workforce participation through supportive workplace policies.
• Focus on State-Specific Interventions: Tailor policies to regional demographic trends, as fertility levels vary significantly across states.
• Invest in Human Capital: Alongside fertility measures, improve education, healthcare, and skill development to maximize the benefits of India’s demographic transition.

Conclusion

• India’s response to declining fertility should focus not merely on increasing birth rates but on creating an environment where individuals and families can have their desired number of children while ensuring sustainable economic and social development.

Source: TH